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Aston Villa v Arsenal prediction

Sat 6 Dec, 12:30 Premier League Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Arsenal to win 46%
Aston Villa 27% Draw 27% Arsenal 46%
Best price1.90 bet365 Fair price2.16 from our 46%

How we got to 46%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 50%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 40%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 46%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games L W W W W
0–2 at LIV 4–0 v BOU 2–1 at LEE 1–0 v WOL 4–3 at BHA
Arsenal All games W D W D W
2–0 at BUR 2–2 at SUN 4–1 v TOT 1–1 at CHE 2–0 v BRE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 1 of Aston Villa's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Arsenal's last 4 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawArsenal
WilliamHill 4.20 3.40 1.85
bet365 4.10 3.50 1.90
Betfair 4.00 3.25 1.80
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Arsenal: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Arsenal in the Premier League on Saturday 6 December and won 2–1.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 4–3 win away at Brighton & Hove Albion.

Arsenal are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Brentford.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 4.20 for Aston Villa, 3.50 for the draw and 1.90 for Arsenal. The bookmakers make Arsenal favourites, at about 50% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 46% chance. The market puts it at 50% and our match model at 40%, and blending those with recent form gives 46%. The best price, 1.90 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 2.16. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.