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AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal prediction

Sat 3 Jan, 17:30 Premier League Full time 2–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Arsenal to win 61%
AFC Bournemouth 17% Draw 23% Arsenal 61%
Best price1.50 WilliamHill Fair price1.65 from our 61%

How we got to 61%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 63%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 57%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 61%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
AFC Bournemouth All games D D D L D
0–0 v CHE 4–4 at MUN 1–1 v BUR 1–4 at BRE 2–2 at CHE
Arsenal All games L W W W W
1–2 at AVL 2–1 v WOL 1–0 at EVE 2–1 v BHA 4–1 v AVL

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of AFC Bournemouth's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Arsenal's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAFC BournemouthDrawArsenal
Betfair 6.00 4.50 1.47
bet365 6.00 4.50 1.50
WilliamHill 5.80 4.33 1.50
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal: prediction and result

AFC Bournemouth hosted Arsenal in the Premier League on Saturday 3 January, and Arsenal won 2–3 away from home.

AFC Bournemouth are in mixed form: 0 won, 4 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw away at Chelsea.

Arsenal are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 4–1 win at home to Aston Villa.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 6.00 for AFC Bournemouth, 4.50 for the draw and 1.50 for Arsenal. The bookmakers make Arsenal favourites, at about 63% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 61% chance. The market puts it at 63% and our match model at 57%, and blending those with recent form gives 61%. The best price, 1.50 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.65. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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2–2 FT Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth Chelsea to win 62% 1–3 FT Burnley v Newcastle United Newcastle United to win 54% 2–2 FT West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion to win 49% 0–2 FT Nottingham Forest v Everton Nottingham Forest to win 46% 1–1 FT Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester United to win 68% 4–1 FT Arsenal v Aston Villa Arsenal to win 67% 0–0 FT Liverpool v Leeds United Liverpool to win 62% 1–1 FT Crystal Palace v Fulham Crystal Palace to win 39%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.