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Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest prediction

Sat 3 Jan, 12:30 Premier League Full time 3–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Aston Villa to win 52%
Aston Villa 52% Draw 25% Nott'm Forest 23%
Best price1.91 WilliamHill Fair price1.92 from our 52%

How we got to 52%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 49%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 56%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 52%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games W W W W L
2–1 v ARS 3–2 at WHU 2–1 v MUN 2–1 at CHE 1–4 at ARS
Nottingham Forest All games L W L L L
0–3 at EVE 3–0 v TOT 0–1 at FUL 1–2 v MCI 0–2 v EVE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes47% Both teams scored in 3 of Aston Villa's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 0 of Nottingham Forest's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawNott'm Forest
WilliamHill 1.91 3.50 3.70
Betfair 1.91 3.40 4.33
bet365 1.90 3.50 4.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on Saturday 3 January and won 3–1.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 1–4 defeat away at Arsenal.

Nottingham Forest are short of results: 1 won, 0 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 8 in that run. Their last game was a 0–2 defeat at home to Everton.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.91 for Aston Villa, 3.50 for the draw and 4.33 for Nott'm Forest. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 50% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 52% chance. The market puts it at 49% and our match model at 56%, and blending those with recent form gives 52%. The best price, 1.91 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.92. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League picks that week →
2–2 FT Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth Chelsea to win 62% 1–3 FT Burnley v Newcastle United Newcastle United to win 54% 2–2 FT West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion to win 49% 0–2 FT Nottingham Forest v Everton Nottingham Forest to win 46% 1–1 FT Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester United to win 68% 4–1 FT Arsenal v Aston Villa Arsenal to win 67% 0–0 FT Liverpool v Leeds United Liverpool to win 62% 1–1 FT Crystal Palace v Fulham Crystal Palace to win 39%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.