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Manchester City v Chelsea prediction

Sun 4 Jan, 17:30 Premier League Full time 1–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Manchester City to win 61%
Man City 61% Draw 21% Chelsea 19%
Best price1.48 bet365 Fair price1.65 from our 61%

How we got to 61%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 64%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 56%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceManchester City to win 61%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Manchester City All games W W W W D
3–0 v SUN 3–0 at CRY 3–0 v WHU 2–1 at NFO 0–0 at SUN
Chelsea All games D W D L D
0–0 at BOU 2–0 v EVE 2–2 at NEW 1–2 v AVL 2–2 v BOU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes55% Both teams scored in 2 of Manchester City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 2 of Chelsea's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMan CityDrawChelsea
bet365 1.48 5.00 5.50
WilliamHill 1.44 4.50 5.50
Betfair 1.44 4.75 6.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Manchester City v Chelsea: prediction and result

Manchester City hosted Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday 4 January, and it finished 1–1.

Manchester City are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 1 in that run. Their last game was a 0–0 draw away at Sunderland.

Chelsea are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw at home to AFC Bournemouth.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.48 for Man City, 5.00 for the draw and 6.00 for Chelsea. The bookmakers make Manchester City favourites, at about 65% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Manchester City to win, with a 61% chance. The market puts it at 64% and our match model at 56%, and blending those with recent form gives 61%. The best price, 1.48 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.65. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.