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Derby County v Oxford United prediction

Sat 18 Apr, 12:30 Championship Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Derby County to win 55%
Derby 55% Draw 26% Oxford 19%
Best price2.00 WilliamHill Fair price1.83 from our 55%

How we got to 55%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 55%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 54%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceDerby County to win 55%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Derby County All games W W L W L
1–0 at PTM 1–0 v BRC 2–3 at CVC 2–0 v STK 1–2 at SOU
Oxford United All games D L D D W
1–1 v CHA 0–2 at SOU 1–1 v HUL 2–2 at PTM 2–0 v WAT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 3 of Derby County's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Oxford United's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerDerbyDrawOxford
WilliamHill 2.00 3.25 3.70
bet365 1.90 3.40 3.90
Betfair 1.29 4.20 12.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Derby County v Oxford United: prediction and result

Derby County hosted Oxford United in the Championship on Saturday 18 April and won 1–0.

Derby County are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat away at Southampton.

Oxford United are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Watford.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.00 for Derby, 4.20 for the draw and 12.00 for Oxford. The bookmakers make Derby County favourites, at about 61% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Derby County to win, with a 55% chance. The market puts it at 55% and our match model at 54%, and blending those with recent form gives 55%. The best price, 2.00 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 1.83, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Championship table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.