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Aston Villa v Sunderland prediction

Sun 19 Apr, 14:00 Premier League Full time 4–3
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Aston Villa to win 57%
Aston Villa 57% Draw 25% Sunderland 18%
Best price1.75 bet365 Fair price1.77 from our 57%

How we got to 57%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 54%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 60%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 57%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games L L L W D
0–2 at WOL 1–4 v CHE 1–3 at MUN 2–0 v WHU 1–1 at NFO
Sunderland All games D W L W W
1–1 at BOU 1–0 at LEE 0–1 v BHA 2–1 at NEW 1–0 v TOT

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes48% Both teams scored in 2 of Aston Villa's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Sunderland's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawSunderland
bet365 1.75 3.60 5.00
WilliamHill 1.73 3.60 4.60
Betfair 1.73 3.50 4.75
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Sunderland: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday 19 April and won 4–3.

Aston Villa are in mixed form: 1 won, 1 drawn and 3 lost from their last 5, 4 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 10 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw away at Nottingham Forest.

Sunderland are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 5 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win at home to Tottenham Hotspur.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.75 for Aston Villa, 3.60 for the draw and 5.00 for Sunderland. The bookmakers make Aston Villa favourites, at about 54% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 57% chance. The market puts it at 54% and our match model at 60%, and blending those with recent form gives 57%. The best price, 1.75 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.77. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.