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Nottingham Forest v Burnley prediction

Sun 19 Apr, 14:00 Premier League Full time 4–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Nottingham Forest to win 61%
Nott'm Forest 61% Draw 22% Burnley 17%
Best price1.45 bet365 Fair price1.65 from our 61%

How we got to 61%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 64%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 55%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceNottingham Forest to win 61%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Nottingham Forest All games L D D W D
1–2 at BHA 2–2 at MCI 0–0 v FUL 3–0 at TOT 1–1 v AVL
Burnley All games L L D L L
3–4 v BRE 0–2 at EVE 0–0 v BOU 1–3 at FUL 0–2 v BHA

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes51% Both teams scored in 2 of Nottingham Forest's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Burnley's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerNott'm ForestDrawBurnley
bet365 1.45 4.50 7.00
WilliamHill 1.44 4.00 6.00
Betfair 1.44 4.33 7.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Nottingham Forest v Burnley: prediction and result

Nottingham Forest hosted Burnley in the Premier League on Sunday 19 April and won 4–1.

Nottingham Forest are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 5 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Aston Villa.

Burnley are short of results: 0 won, 1 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 1 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 11 in that run. Their last game was a 0–2 defeat at home to Brighton & Hove Albion.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.45 for Nott'm Forest, 4.50 for the draw and 7.00 for Burnley. The bookmakers make Nottingham Forest favourites, at about 65% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Nottingham Forest to win, with a 61% chance. The market puts it at 64% and our match model at 55%, and blending those with recent form gives 61%. The best price, 1.45 at bet365, is shorter than our fair price of 1.65. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.