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Manchester City v Arsenal prediction

Sun 19 Apr, 16:30 Premier League Full time 2–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Manchester City to win 47%
Man City 47% Draw 25% Arsenal 27%
Best price1.85 WilliamHill Fair price2.12 from our 47%

How we got to 47%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 51%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 42%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceManchester City to win 47%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Manchester City All games W W D D W
2–1 v NEW 1–0 at LEE 2–2 v NFO 1–1 at WHU 3–0 at CHE
Arsenal All games W W W W L
4–1 at TOT 2–1 v CHE 1–0 at BHA 2–0 v EVE 1–2 v BOU

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes56% Both teams scored in 4 of Manchester City's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of Arsenal's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerMan CityDrawArsenal
WilliamHill 1.85 3.50 4.00
bet365 1.85 3.70 4.10
Betfair 1.83 3.50 4.33
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Manchester City v Arsenal: prediction and result

Manchester City hosted Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 19 April and won 2–1.

Manchester City are in strong form: 3 won, 2 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 11 points from a possible 15. They have scored 9 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 3–0 win away at Chelsea.

Arsenal are in strong form: 4 won, 0 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 12 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–2 defeat at home to AFC Bournemouth.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.85 for Man City, 3.70 for the draw and 4.33 for Arsenal. The bookmakers make Manchester City favourites, at about 52% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Manchester City to win, with a 47% chance. The market puts it at 51% and our match model at 42%, and blending those with recent form gives 47%. The best price, 1.85 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 2.12. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League picks that week →
0–0 FT Brentford v Fulham Brentford to win 46% 3–0 FT Leeds United v Wolverhampton Wanderers Leeds United to win 61% 1–2 FT Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth Newcastle United to win 43% 2–2 FT Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion to win 40% 0–1 FT Chelsea v Manchester United Chelsea to win 43% 4–1 FT Nottingham Forest v Burnley Nottingham Forest to win 61% 4–3 FT Aston Villa v Sunderland Aston Villa to win 57% 1–2 FT Everton v Liverpool Liverpool to win 42%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.