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Aston Villa v Liverpool prediction

Fri 15 May, 20:00 Premier League Full time 4–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Aston Villa to win 37%
Aston Villa 37% Draw 26% Liverpool 37%
Best price2.80 WilliamHill Fair price2.67 from our 37%

How we got to 37%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 34%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 42%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceAston Villa to win 37%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Aston Villa All games D W L L D
1–1 at NFO 4–3 v SUN 0–1 at FUL 1–2 v TOT 2–2 at BUR
Liverpool All games W W W L D
2–0 v FUL 2–1 at EVE 3–1 v CRY 2–3 at MUN 1–1 v CHE

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes62% Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Liverpool's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerAston VillaDrawLiverpool
WilliamHill 2.80 3.30 2.45
Betfair 2.70 3.30 2.50
bet365 2.70 3.40 2.55
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Aston Villa v Liverpool: prediction and result

Aston Villa hosted Liverpool in the Premier League on Friday 15 May and won 4–2.

Aston Villa are in mixed form: 1 won, 2 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 8 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw away at Burnley.

Liverpool are in decent form: 3 won, 1 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 10 points from a possible 15. They have scored 10 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Chelsea.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.80 for Aston Villa, 3.40 for the draw and 2.55 for Liverpool. The bookmakers see little between Liverpool and Aston Villa here.

Our prediction: Aston Villa to win, with a 37% chance. The market puts it at 34% and our match model at 42%, and blending those with recent form gives 37%. The best price, 2.80 at WilliamHill, is longer than our fair price of 2.67, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.