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Arsenal v Burnley prediction

Mon 18 May, 20:00 Premier League Full time 1–0
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Arsenal to win 82%
Arsenal 82% Draw 12% Burnley 6%
Best price1.10 WilliamHill Fair price1.22 from our 82%

How we got to 82%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 87%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 75%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 82%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Arsenal All games L L W W W
1–2 v BOU 1–2 at MCI 1–0 v NEW 3–0 v FUL 1–0 at WHU
Burnley All games L L L L D
0–2 v BHA 1–4 at NFO 0–1 v MCI 1–3 at LEE 2–2 v AVL

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes42% Both teams scored in 2 of Arsenal's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerArsenalDrawBurnley
WilliamHill 1.10 10.00 26.00
bet365 1.09 10.00 26.00
Betfair 1.07 11.00 23.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Arsenal v Burnley: prediction and result

Arsenal hosted Burnley in the Premier League on Monday 18 May and won 1–0.

Arsenal are in decent form: 3 won, 0 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 9 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 1–0 win away at West Ham United.

Burnley are short of results: 0 won, 1 drawn and 4 lost from their last 5, 1 points from a possible 15. They have scored 4 and conceded 12 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw at home to Aston Villa.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.10 for Arsenal, 11.00 for the draw and 26.00 for Burnley. The bookmakers make Arsenal favourites, at about 88% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 82% chance. The market puts it at 87% and our match model at 75%, and blending those with recent form gives 82%. The best price, 1.10 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.22. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.