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Brentford v AFC Bournemouth prediction

Sat 27 Dec, 15:00 Premier League Full time 4–1
Our pick, revealed after full time Won
Brentford to win 44%
Brentford 44% Draw 27% AFC Bournemouth 29%
Best price2.30 Betfair Fair price2.27 from our 44%

How we got to 44%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 42%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 48%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceBrentford to win 44%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Brentford All games W L L D W
3–1 v BUR 0–2 at ARS 0–2 at TOT 1–1 v LEE 2–0 at WOL
AFC Bournemouth All games L L D D D
2–3 at SUN 0–1 v EVE 0–0 v CHE 4–4 at MUN 1–1 v BUR

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes57% Both teams scored in 4 of Brentford's last 5 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of AFC Bournemouth's last 5 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerBrentfordDrawAFC Bournemouth
Betfair 2.30 3.50 3.00
WilliamHill 2.25 3.40 3.00
bet365 2.25 3.40 3.10
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Brentford v AFC Bournemouth: prediction and result

Brentford hosted AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday 27 December and won 4–1.

Brentford are in decent form: 2 won, 1 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 7 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win away at Wolverhampton Wanderers.

AFC Bournemouth are short of results: 0 won, 3 drawn and 2 lost from their last 5, 3 points from a possible 15. They have scored 7 and conceded 9 in that run. Their last game was a 1–1 draw at home to Burnley.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 2.30 for Brentford, 3.50 for the draw and 3.10 for AFC Bournemouth. The bookmakers make Brentford favourites, at about 42% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Brentford to win, with a 44% chance. The market puts it at 42% and our match model at 48%, and blending those with recent form gives 44%. The best price, 2.30 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 2.27, so there is value in it. The pick won.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

More Premier League predictions

All Premier League picks that week →
1–0 FT Manchester United v Newcastle United Manchester United to win 42% 1–2 FT Nottingham Forest v Manchester City Manchester City to win 57% 2–1 FT Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers Liverpool to win 76% 2–1 FT Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal to win 69% 0–1 FT West Ham United v Fulham Fulham to win 44% 0–0 FT Burnley v Everton Everton to win 43% 1–2 FT Chelsea v Aston Villa Chelsea to win 53% 1–1 FT Sunderland v Leeds United Sunderland to win 36%
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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.