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Chelsea v Aston Villa prediction

Sat 27 Dec, 17:30 Premier League Full time 1–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Chelsea to win 53%
Chelsea 53% Draw 23% Aston Villa 24%
Best price1.83 WilliamHill Fair price1.89 from our 53%

How we got to 53%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 53%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 52%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceChelsea to win 53%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Chelsea All games D L D W D
1–1 v ARS 1–3 at LEE 0–0 at BOU 2–0 v EVE 2–2 at NEW
Aston Villa All games W W W W W
1–0 v WOL 4–3 at BHA 2–1 v ARS 3–2 at WHU 2–1 v MUN

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes57% Both teams scored in 2 of Chelsea's last 4 home games. Both teams scored in 4 of Aston Villa's last 5 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerChelseaDrawAston Villa
WilliamHill 1.83 3.90 3.80
Betfair 1.75 4.00 4.33
bet365 1.75 4.00 4.33
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Chelsea v Aston Villa: prediction and result

Chelsea hosted Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 27 December, and Aston Villa won 1–2 away from home.

Chelsea are in mixed form: 1 won, 3 drawn and 1 lost from their last 5, 6 points from a possible 15. They have scored 6 and conceded 6 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw away at Newcastle United.

Aston Villa are in strong form: 5 won, 0 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 15 points from a possible 15. They have scored 12 and conceded 7 in that run. Their last game was a 2–1 win at home to Manchester United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 1.83 for Chelsea, 4.00 for the draw and 4.33 for Aston Villa. The bookmakers make Chelsea favourites, at about 53% once the margin is taken out.

Our prediction: Chelsea to win, with a 53% chance. The market puts it at 53% and our match model at 52%, and blending those with recent form gives 53%. The best price, 1.83 at WilliamHill, is shorter than our fair price of 1.89. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.