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Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth prediction

Sat 11 Apr, 12:30 Premier League Full time 1–2
Our pick, revealed after full time Lost
Arsenal to win 56%
Arsenal 56% Draw 22% AFC Bournemouth 22%
Best price4.50 Betfair Fair price1.79 from our 56%

How we got to 56%

Three sources, blended. How it works →
Bookmaker oddsWhat the market thinks, margin removed 50%
Match modelGoals, chances created and conceded 65%
Recent formLast 5 for each side, home and away —
Blended chanceArsenal to win 56%

Form

Last 5, oldest first
Arsenal All games D W W W W
2–2 at WOL 4–1 at TOT 2–1 v CHE 1–0 at BHA 2–0 v EVE
AFC Bournemouth All games D D D D D
0–0 at WHU 1–1 v SUN 0–0 v BRE 0–0 at BUR 2–2 v MUN

Both teams to score

Revealed after full time
BTTS Yes50% Both teams scored in 3 of Arsenal's last 6 home games. Both teams scored in 3 of AFC Bournemouth's last 6 away games.

Match result odds

GB-licensed bookmakers
BookmakerArsenalDrawAFC Bournemouth
Betfair 4.50 4.00 1.67
WilliamHill 1.44 4.40 6.50
bet365 1.44 4.33 7.00
Best price in each column highlighted. Odds can change, so check before you bet.

Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth: prediction and result

Arsenal hosted AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday 11 April, and AFC Bournemouth won 1–2 away from home.

Arsenal are in strong form: 4 won, 1 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 13 points from a possible 15. They have scored 11 and conceded 4 in that run. Their last game was a 2–0 win at home to Everton.

AFC Bournemouth are in mixed form: 0 won, 5 drawn and 0 lost from their last 5, 5 points from a possible 15. They have scored 3 and conceded 3 in that run. Their last game was a 2–2 draw at home to Manchester United.

The best prices across 3 UK bookmakers are 4.50 for Arsenal, 4.40 for the draw and 7.00 for AFC Bournemouth. The bookmakers see little between the draw and Arsenal here.

Our prediction: Arsenal to win, with a 56% chance. The market puts it at 50% and our match model at 65%, and blending those with recent form gives 56%. The best price, 4.50 at Betfair, is longer than our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. The pick lost.

How our predictions work · Premier League table

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Best prices from GB-licensed bookmakers. Odds can change; check before betting.